Guangdong Kai strategy: technology stocks are still the main prospects after the epidemic fades
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities! Source: Chongli Tan, head of the Guangdong Kaikai Securities Strategy Group, Tan Ye, head of the New Third Board of Guangdong Kaikai Securities, and strategic analyst Yin Yue. Review of the market performance before and after the SARS review. The overall performance of the A-share market during the SARS period.The epidemic brought market fluctuations and a short-term downward trend. After the epidemic ended, the market eased.During the SARS period, banks, non-bank finance, public utilities, automobiles, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology were anti-fall industries, and many industries declined after the outbreak. According to the SARS spread and development process, it is divided into four stages: the first stage of the epidemic (November 2002-February 2003), the market value is low, and the impact is less affected; the second stage of the spread ((2003) March to mid-April 2003), the market is not paying enough attention to the epidemic situation, and the mood is still relatively optimistic, many industries offset each other. At that time, the economic growth rate was high, the fixed investment growth was fast, and the macro environment was more relevant.Large financial, automotive, steel and other cyclical stocks have higher gains. Banks, non-bank financial, automotive, and steel industries have all increased by more than 10%, while the pharmaceutical and biological industries have only 南京夜网 increased slightly; the severe period of the third stage (mid April 2003-Mid-May 2003), the market began to panic, public utilities, automobiles, medical and biological are better varieties to resist falling; the fourth phase of the relief period (mid-May 2003-July 2003), TMT, mining,The transportation industry is an industry eroded by the increase, while the automobile, pharmaceuticals, banks, and non-banking finance that fell in the early stage have fallen. The SARS VS “New Crown” benchmarked SARS in 2003. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has the following three differences: 1. The Spring Festival holiday only partially buffered the panic during the spread.The SARS market dropped by 8% during the spread period. The outbreak of this round coincides with the Spring Festival holiday. The A-share market has been postponed. The impact of the epidemic has not been fully realized. The contradictory correlation between the Hong Kong stock market and the FTSE A50 index is not optimistic. 2. Compared with the SARS period, the outbreak prevention and control measures are more efficient and effective, and the short-term impact on the economy has broken through.Substantial and stringent prevention and control measures have been introduced in various places, and a series of regional isolation policies have been adopted. The company resumed work, delayed the resumption of production, forced the returnees to isolate themselves, and restricted travel in the main urban area.Especially in Hubei Province, where the epidemic center Wuhan is located, economic activity in the relevant areas has basically stalled. 3. In this round of epidemic, the national economy is at the bottom of the counter-cyclical adjustment.2003 is the year of macroeconomic growth and policy tightening beyond expectations; 2020 is the last year for the comprehensive construction of a well-off society, and it is faced with the completion of two doubling of political goals and policies, and the policy needs further efforts to support the bottom.Part of the recent easing policy is beginning to emerge.Whether the follow-up policy can be loosened more than expected will be the main contradiction that affects the progress of the market. Under the epidemic, the short-term Shanghai stock index from the interpretation of the A-share market will inevitably fall. We predict the market carefully and carefully from the space and time. From the time rhythm of market adjustment, under the optimistic situation, the epidemic situation may be more effectively controlled before the peak return of students (Jin Qilin analysts) at the end of February, and the impact on the secondary market will also fade.Entering March, the market is expected to consolidate at the bottom or usher in a certain rebound, and April is the intensive stage of the quarterly report. The impact of the epidemic on related listed companies in the first quarter will also improve, causing stock indexes or renewed pressure.However, we believe that the probability of the index reaching a new low is relatively small, mainly considering that the gradual release of the two sessions will be a good policy. The short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy will form a corresponding hedge under the counter-cyclical policy. Following the market rhythm and grasping the industry’s rotation, the epidemic has now reached the stage of spreading. From the current point of time, online entertainment and pharmaceutical varieties have continued to make a strong breakthrough. The epidemic relief period can be appropriately focused on the rebound opportunities of the oversold sectors.After dissipating, the market may return to its original operating logic. The short-term affected by rework delays and passenger flow are the physical service enterprises such as catering, tourism, hotels, retail, and transportation. Internet entertainment consumer services that have a substitute role for physical consumption will increase. Suggested attention: 1) Games and online videosBenefit class target.2) Delayed start of school and delayed resumption of work make online education and video conferencing the first choice, and online education and knowledge will become explosive growth. Starting from the needs of the outbreak, medicine is both a fundamental benefit industry and a capital hedging industry. On the first day of the opening of the benchmark Hong Kong stocks, China Medical Group grew by over 280%, and many pharmaceutical stocks in Hong Kong stocks continued to soar.The performance of the three types of pharmaceutical companies is even more prominent: 1) The surge in demand for masks, goggles, protective clothing and other protective consumables and testing reagents rose in volume and price.2) Chinese medicine companies that produce customized medicines.3) Vaccine and specific drug R & D enterprises are supported by policies. Short-term epidemic factors The market operation has been disturbed. After the epidemic situation fades, the market gradually returns to its own operating logic.Strong early-stage technology stocks are still the mainstay of the emerging boom.In addition, from the perspective of the medium and long-term, after the arrival of the inflection point of the epidemic situation, we can appropriately lay out the rebound opportunities of the oversold industries in the early stage in combination with the fundamentals. Risk reminder: the epidemic spreads more than expected, the economy has fallen more than expected, and the following is part I. The market performance before and after the SARS review (1) What is the market rhythm before and after the SARS? Looking back at the performance of the A-share market during the SARS period, the overall SARS epidemic brought about market changes and a short-term market downturn, but the market has eased after the epidemic ended. Specifically, it can be gradually divided into four according to the spread and progress of SARS.Stage: Early in the epidemic (November 2002-February 2003): On November 16, 2002, the first SARS case was found in Foshan, Guangdong, and “SARS” began to appear. At the beginning of the epidemic, the attention was low, and the market was less affected by the epidemic.The market was mainly affected by the “spring agitation”, and the market presented a volatile market. Epidemic spread period (March 2003-Mid April 2003): After the first imported case was accepted in Beijing on March 6, the epidemic began to erupt and the market declined slightly, but the government adopted the “Atypical Pneumonia Prevention Technology Program”It is estimated that with the cooperation of WHO, the country began to recognize the SARS epidemic, and the market as a whole remained optimistic. The market situation was not greatly affected by the epidemic, and the market showed an upward performance. Severe period of the epidemic (Mid-April 2003-Mid-May 2003): On April 16, WHO officially announced the SARS virus, and then the Central Standing Committee convened an epidemic meeting. The market began to turn around. After recognizing the severity of the SARS epidemic, the Shanghai Stock Exchange comprehensiveRefers to a decrease of about 8% in the short term, and the market appears panic. Epidemic mitigation period (mid May 2003-July 2003): Adopt effective national control measures to effectively control the atypical pneumonia epidemic, ease the emotional deterioration caused by “atypical pneumonia” in the short term, and stabilize A shares. (II) How does the industry rotate before and after SARS? During the SARS period, banks, non-bank finance, public utilities, automobiles, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology were anti-fall industries, and many industries declined after the outbreak. In the early stage of the first stage of the epidemic (November 2002-February 2003), the degree of market observation was low and the impact was small. In the second stage, during the spread of the epidemic (March 2003-Mid April 2003), market sentiment was optimistic, and many industries were less affected by SARS. The growth rates of banks, non-bank finance, automotive, and steel industries all exceeded 10%.Affected by the high economic growth and the fast-growing macroeconomic environment, the financial sectors such as banking, non-banking finance, and automobile, steel and other cyclical sectors saw large increases. Due to the low market attention to the epidemic, the pharmaceutical and biological industry saw a slight increase.Growth growth; the severe epidemic in the third stage (Mid-April 2003-Mid-May 2003), the market began to panic. At this stage, utilities, automobiles, medical and biological are better anti-fall varieties, and there is a slight increase in public utilities and automobiles.increase.The top five industries that fell were leisure services (-13.8%), real estate (-11.6%), the media (-11.1%), building decoration (-11.1%), household appliances (-10.4%) During the SARS mitigation period, the TMT, mining, and transportation industries were the industries that conducted the increase, while the early anti-oxidant vehicles, pharmaceuticals, banks, and non-bank financials fell. Second, the general research under the impact of the “New Crown” (1) “SARS” VS “New Crown” benchmarking SARS in 2003, the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation has the following three differences: 1. Spring Festival holiday only partially buffered the panic during the spread period.The SARS market dropped by 8% during the spread period. The outbreak of the current round coincides with the Spring Festival holiday. The A-share market has been postponed. Of course, the impact of the epidemic has not yet been fully realized. The Hong Kong stocks and the FTSE A50 index with contradictory correlations have not shown optimism.The Hang Seng Index fell more than 1500 points in the past two trading days, returning to the low point of December last year, and the FTSE A50 Index returning to the low point of May last year. 2. Compared with the SARS period, the outbreak prevention and control measures are more efficient and effective, and the short-term impact on the economy has broken through.Substantial and stringent prevention and control measures have been introduced in various places, and a series of regional isolation policies have been adopted. The company resumed work, delayed the resumption of production, forced the returnees to isolate themselves, and restricted travel in the main urban area.Especially in Hubei Province, where the epidemic center Wuhan is located, economic activity in the relevant areas has basically stalled. 3. In this round of epidemic, the national economy is at the bottom of the counter-cyclical adjustment.2003 is the year when the macroeconomic policy is tightened beyond expectations, and 2020 is the last year to build a well-off society in an all-round way. We are faced with two doubling of the political goals and policies, and the policy needs further efforts to support the bottom.Recent signs of easing are obvious, such as the extension of February’s interest rates for some enterprises, and Hubei’s mid-to-low corporate loan interest rates have been reduced by 0.5pct and other policies have been introduced.Our macro team believes that after the epidemic, counter-cyclical expansion will be overweight. Possible measures include lowering the standards, lowering MLF and LPR interest rates, increasing the fiscal deficit rate, further increasing the proportion of special debt invested in infrastructure, and policy banks increasing their infrastructure.Loan support for project supporting financing, more cities will relax their land expansion and increase the stimulus for automobile consumption under the framework of “extending the policy in accordance with the city”.Whether the follow-up policy can be loosened more than expected will be the main contradiction that affects the progress of the market. Second, from the time rhythm of market adjustment, we believe that the current round of epidemic may be divided into three stages of spread. Under the optimistic situation, the epidemic may be controlled before the end of February, and the market is expected to usher in improvement. The first stage of proliferation is the peak of return to Beijing this weekend.Because next Monday is a normal national return day. The second peak is the fifteenth day of the first lunar month. After the lunar year, many freelancers return with a high probability. The third peak of the return trip is after the school’s winter break, plus a half-month quarantine period, before the end of February.Basically, the outbreak may be under control. Under the optimistic situation, the epidemic situation may be controlled more effectively and the impact on the secondary market will recede before the peak of student return trips at the end of February.Entering March, the market is expected to consolidate at the bottom or usher in a certain rebound, and April is the intensive stage of the quarterly report. The impact of the epidemic on related listed companies in the first quarter will also improve, causing stock indexes or renewed pressure.However, we believe that the probability of the index reaching a new low is relatively small, mainly considering that the gradual release of the two sessions will be a good policy. The short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy will form a corresponding hedge under the counter-cyclical policy. Third, follow the market rhythm and grasp the index of the industry’s rotation after the opening of the A-share index will inevitably fall. It is recommended that investors grasp the rhythm of the market interpretation and investment opportunities under the industry’s rotation.Now that the epidemic has reached the stage of spread, starting from the current point of time, the diversity of medicine and entertainment continues to be strong in the short term. During the epidemic mitigation period, you can moderately focus on the rebound opportunities of the oversold sectors. After the epidemic disturbance subsides, the market may return to the originalRun the logic. (I) Pharmaceuticals. The short-term expectation of online entertainment continues to be strong. The short-term impact of rework delays and passenger flow will be on physical service enterprises such as catering, tourism, hotels, retail, and transportation. Internet entertainment consumer services that have a substitute for physical consumption willThere is growth.In addition, the pharmaceutical sector fully benefited from the need for epidemic prevention and treatment. On the first day of the opening of the target Hong Kong stocks, China Medical Group increased by over 280%, and many pharmaceutical stocks in Hong Kong stocks continued to soar. Based on the media team’s point of view, we believe that starting from the needs of ordinary citizens who are isolated from home and resumed work postponed, participation in online entertainment, online education, and video conferencing has increased significantly: 1) Adding users and activity to games and online videosUsers increase.The old games are collectively picking up. The data shows that Tencent’s server was paralyzed for 30 years. The glory of the king was nearly 20 billion in a single day. The original offline content consumption such as “Aunt” went online, and the online video category was targeted.Benefit.2) Delayed start of school and resumption of work make online education and video conferencing the first choice.Most provinces have extended the start of the spring semester of kindergartens in elementary and middle schools to February 17. Under the influence of the stagnation of offline remedial classes, online education and knowledge will explode. Combining the point of view of the medical team, we believe that starting from the need for epidemic prevention, medicine is both an industry that directly benefits from fundamentals and an industry that is safe from capital.The performance of the three types of pharmaceutical companies is even more prominent: 1) The surge in demand for masks, goggles, protective clothing and other protective consumables and testing reagents rose in volume and price.Due to the weak awareness of Chinese people in the daily use of protective supplies such as masks, and the current demand for front-line epidemic prevention staff and patients is large, many provinces and cities have mandated that masks must be placed in public places, coupled with market panic, the supply and demand of protective supplies has decreased, and the distanceChannel sales prices have increased several times, and factory capacity has reached its maximum.2) Chinese medicine companies that produce customized medicines.At this stage is the period of frequent influenza, and there is no specific medicine for new crown pneumonia. Banlangen and Lianhua Qingwen Capsules are the first choice for many patients with high fever. Therefore, it is understood that Lianhua Qingwen Capsules is the first choice for doctors in epidemic areas hospitals.It is also the first recommended drug in the city’s distribution pharmacy.3) Vaccine and specific drug R & D enterprises are supported by policies.The state supports clinical trials of new coronary pneumonia vaccines, the approval of rapid-acting drugs, and the process of conversion to Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies in bioimmunotherapy methods has achieved substantial breakthroughs. Compared with the SARS period, all sectors have defeated local Chinese pharmaceutical companies.The confidence of 2019-nCoV has increased significantly. (2) The mid-to-long-term boom is firmly on the main line of the economy, and the market operation is moderately disrupted. The market operation of the short-term epidemic factors has been disturbed, and the market gradually returns to its operating logic after the epidemic weakens.Strong early-stage technology stocks are still the mainstay of the emerging boom. The logical topology of the high-tech sector that has just ushered in the harvest period is picking up the logic topology, and the “black swan” event is difficult to shake the foundation for long-term growth.Against the background of industrial structure reform, the return on assets of technology companies with policy dividends and performance support has continued to increase, and strong technology stocks in the early stage are still the mainstay of the growth boom.Taking the 5G concept and the new energy concept as an example, during the holiday market break, 5G will soon be used to support telemedicine in epidemic areas. The EU countries that are “technology-neutral” have won multiple participating 5G projects. Tesla confirmed with NingdeTime cooperated to produce Model3 batteries, and the two parties reached a supply relationship.It can be seen that the growth trend under technological innovation is long-term and international, and is not affected by the “black swan”. After a period of disturbance, the development of high-tech industries has returned to a strong position. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, after the arrival of the inflection point of the epidemic, it is possible to grasp the rebound opportunities of the oversold industry in the early stage.Because the industries that are most affected are those with the strongest consumer attributes, consumption frequency returns to stability, and after the unit price of passengers returns to rationality, the oversold industries gradually return to normal levels of change. Investors are advised to appropriately grasp the rebound opportunity after the market has fallen.